Bird flu pandemic could kill 150m, UN warns

"A global flu pandemic could kill as many as 150 million people if the world fails to prepare for an expected mutation of the bird flu virus, enabling it to spread from human to human, the United Nations said.

"If the virus spreads among humans, the quality of the world response will determine whether it ends up killing five million or as many as 150 million, Dr David Nabarro of the Geneva-based World Health Organisation (WHO) told a news conference.

"The last flu pandemic, which broke out in 1918 at the end of World War One, killed more than 40 million people and drove home the vulnerability of a world where borders had less and less meaning, he said.

"Dr Nabarro said UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan has asked him to head up a worldwide drive to contain the current bird flu pandemic and prepare for its possible jump to humans.

"It seems very likely the H5N1 bird flu virus will soon change into a variant able to be transmitted among humans and it would be a big mistake to ignore that danger, he warned.

"'I am almost certain there will be another pandemic soon,' Dr Nabarro said.

"Some governments and international organisations have already started joining forces to begin preparations.

"US President George W Bush unveiled a plan at the United Nations this month under which global resources and expertise would be pooled to fight bird flu, and Washington is hosting an October 7-8 planning meeting.

"Canada is hosting an October 25-26 meeting of high-level officials in Ottawa, and the WHO has called for a November 7-8 meeting in Geneva to coordinate needed funding.

"So far, the H5N1 virus has mainly infected humans who were in close contact with infected birds and has killed 66 people in four Asian nations since late 2003.

"Asia and the Middle East are particular concerns as the bird flu is now concentrated in Asia and could be carried to the Middle East by migratory flocks, Dr Nabarro said.

"An outbreak in an impoverished and conflict-ridden part of Africa such as Sudan, where health services are scarce and millions have been driven from their homes, could lead to "a nightmare scenario," he said.

"Until now, the effort to contain the spread of the virus among birds and prepare for a possible shift to humans has been led by the Paris-based World Organisation for Animal Health, the Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organisation and the WHO.

"Dr Nabarro said he would head a new UN system-wide office in New York that would begin mobilising governments, international agencies, health workers and the pharmaceutical industry."
ABC

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